Monsoon casts a strong spell over western, central India

The monsoon has now reached roaring strength with a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal intensifying and the Arabian Sea preparing to host its own over next two days.

Powered by the twin engines, the monsoon is poised to unleash some heavy to very heavy rainfall over east, central and northern parts of the West Coast, including Gujarat.

The US Climate Prediction Centre and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts join the watch for an extended play of active monsoon conditions for the rest of the month.

In fact, the US Centre says that the low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal would be pivot around which the monsoon would prosper over South Asia during the period.

“Any monsoon low formation over the Bay has the potential to bring widespread heavy rainfall across parts of South Asia,” the forecaster said.

India Met Department said on Friday that the Arabian Sea would join the monsoon party by spinning up its own ‘low’ in two days.

According to the European Centre, the Bay and the Arabian Sea systems would merge and drive up the rainfall to a new peak over central India. Indications are that Mumbai and surroundings would continue to receive heavy to very rainfall for the next few days as well.

Global models also hint at the possibility of South China Sea/northwest Pacific throwing a spanner in the monsoon works by conjuring up its own weather system during the next two weeks.

A concurrent ‘low’ forming in these sea basins just to the east of Bay of Bengal can spirit away some of the moisture and weaken the existing ones closer to mainland India (Bay and the Arabian Sea).

In any case, the week ending June 23 will likely see enhancement of the monsoon. The ‘low’ in the Bay supports the potential for widespread heavy monsoon rainfall, including over Nepal.

The models support a continuation of enhanced monsoon activity, excluding the South, during the week that follows (June 24-30).

A drier phase is forecast to reach out from the central equatorial Indian Ocean (south of Sri Lanka) towards peninsular India during the period.

The monsoon has delivered excess rainfall of 11 per cent until Wednesday.

This can only go up during the weekend and into the next week with the Bay and Arabian Sea systems in full flourish.