Monsoon deficit rises as peninsula dips into red

The overall monsoon deficit at the end of July, the rainiest of the four months, has deteriorated to five per cent for the country as a whole.

The south peninsula slipped deeper into red with a regional deficit of 20 per cent. Central India has a deficit of four per cent and east and north-east India, nine per cent.

North-West returned the lone regional surplus of 11 per cent.

July rains have been below normal by 15 per cent in July, says Naveen Mathur, Associate Director, Commodities and Currencies, Angel Broking.

This is only slightly better than the position at the end of last week (a deficiency of 26 per cent) with large tracts of southern peninsula remaining dry.

The India Met Department had projected a deficit of eight per cent for the month. But it has been proved wrong by a wide margin despite the very heavy precipitation in the east and the west of the country. The rainfall trend also goes to put upside down what was forecast in advance by most models in terms of geographical distribution.

They had projected northwest India as the worst sufferer of what would be a deficient monsoon overall.

India Met Department and a number of global agencies expected the south peninsula to return the best figures among the four regions but have been proved wrong by a long margin as on date.

The big deficit in the South does not bode well for the region since there are indications that the monsoon could go into a lean phase by end of the first week of August.

Projections by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts say that the monsoon would be hijacked by a likely super typhoon brewing in the west Pacific early next week.

Meanwhile, on Friday, erstwhile cyclone ‘Komen’ that crossed Bangladesh coast the previous night has weakened into depression. But the cyclone remnant will still carry some punch in terms of rain output over east India where it is headed now.

The low-pressure area over north-west India has now crossed the international border and was located over central Pakistan.

This effectively leaves east India – especially West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh – as the region where the monsoon would be most active during the next few days.