Monsoon enters Bay, may wait a bit before resuming journey

The South-West Monsoon on Thursday covered the entire North Andaman Sea and entered into more parts of South-East and East-Central Bay of Bengal, an India Met Department (IMD) update said.

Its northern limit showing the line of maximum coverage was unchanged from Wednesday’s anchor point of Mayabunder in Middle Andamans. The IMD did not see further progress for the monsoon in the Bay for another four-five days.

Forecasts by global agencies differ as to how this recess will be broken, with a few US-based models suggesting that both the Bay of Bengal and South-East Arabian Sea will wake up to activity one after the other. The US Climate Prediction Centre has issued an alert about the formation of a low-pressure area around the Andaman & Nicobar Islands over the next week.

Similar activity, though lower in intensity, would be triggered in the Laccadive Sea (body of water bordering India, Sri Lanka and Maldives).

But it may die out sooner in view of the better endowed system in the Bay. This is because, except under exceptional circumstances, no two sea-based systems can hope to thrive in close proximity, especially when they are embedded in the same monsoon flows.

The US agency has forecast a slow movement for the ‘low’ into Central Bay of Bengal. Slow-moving systems are known to help with the canonical progression of the monsoon.

Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts did not see any possibility of any system brewing in either of the seas around the South Indian peninsula during the next week.

It is just that the core monsoon flows in the Laccadive Sea and the Bay may strengthen. In fact, the Central Arabian Sea would have to contend with a high-pressure area (as opposed to monsoon-friendly low-pressure area). This would distract the monsoon flows.

A group of other models predicted that the South Arabian Sea (around Maldives) might witness the genesis of a low-pressure area that might go on to become a depression. But it is forecast to move away towards the Yemen-Oman-Arabian Gulf belt.

Projections by the IMD too pointed to areas of concentrated rain in South-West Bay of Bengal even as an away-moving system in the Central Arabian Sea was shown to be eyeing the Yemen-Oman belt.

The onset of monsoon along Kerala coast would have to wait until these systems weaken and fade out to be of no further consequence.