The monsoon seems to have got stuck on the way yet again, only a day after making an onset over mainland India.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday that the system had not progressed beyond the Satara-Belgaum-Madikeri-Kodaikanal-Gangtok alignment.
EARLY DEFICIT
It also said that the monsoon rainfall was 36 per cent below average in the week ending June 6.
This was expected after the seasonal rains missed their usual arrival date of June 1 over the Kerala coast.
The suspected weakening of the monsoon is being attributed to a fresh tropical cyclone ‘Kuena,’ which had sprung up upstream overnight on Thursday.
Its location in southwest Indian Ocean, northeast of Madagascar, was assessed as prejudicial to the larger cause of the monsoon.
By Thursday evening, the storm had weakened and lay as a low-pressure area to the northeast of Madagascar.
OFFSHORE TROUGH
Even this could be bothersome since it can weaken a powerful anti-cyclone circulation in the region considered the powerhouse for monsoon.
This anti-cyclone steers the trade winds from south of the equator and powers them to become southwesterly monsoon flows towards the Kerala coast.
On Thursday, the offshore trough, the elongated region of lower pressure and an indicator of an active phase of monsoon, lay extended from Konkan to Kerala.
It was topped off by a persisting upper air cyclonic circulation over east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining coastal Karnataka persists in lower levels.
HEAVY RAINS
The IMD has warned of heavy rainfall at one or two places over coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next two days.
A passing western disturbance in northwest India would bring thunder squalls over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and north Rajasthan on Friday.
An extended forecast valid until Sunday said that rain or thundershowers would occur at many places over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Konkan, Goa and Lakshadweep.
Rains are also likely at a few places over interior Karnataka and south Madhya Maharashtra and at one or two places over Marathawada and Gujarat.