The monsoon, currently going through the pangs of a possible revival, is getting increasingly active over the West Coast - Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Konkan & Goa - and the North-Eastern States.

The good tidings may gradually extend to cover a wider geography from June 24 when the monsoon might manage to break fresh ground in the East, an India Met Department (IMD) update said.

Rains to pick up

An extended forecast valid for June 24 to 26 indicated the possibility of widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls along the West Coast, the North-Eastern States, West Bengal and Sikkim.

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is forecast over the Andaman & Nicobar & Lakshadweep Islands, Bihar and the South Peninsula, while it would be isolated over North-West and Central India.

Gujarat and West Madhya Pradesh would need to wait out further to receive the first spell of monsoon rains, which would have been delayed by 10 days at the least.

The fact that the rains are expected to lash the islands (Lakshadweep in the Arabian Sea and Andaman & Nicobar in the Bay of Bengal) indicates that the revival would be broad-based, going forward.

Bihar would be an important gateway to the plains of the East, from where the monsoon easterlies blowing in from the Bay would be priming to fan into the monsoon trough and North-West India.

Circulation in Bay

Working behind this transformation is a cyclonic circulation over the West-Central Bay and adjoining South Odisha and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts. That it is lying partially over sea and land would still allow it to attain some traction, especially in the absence of any rival circulation currently in the North-West Pacific or South China Sea.

The circulation is shown to take advantage of this window and beef up itself in strength over land, with the associated easterly winds warding off the marauding dry westerlies from North-West India. It would be a tenacious and sustained battle out there in the plains of the North for the easterly monsoon winds to gain an upper hand and force the westerlies to beat a retreat.

Only this can bring the monsoon easterlies, and along with them the seasonal rains, further over East India, Central India and parts of North-West India. It will be quite some time the battle front reaches North Gujarat and West Rajasthan, which would be the last regions to be covered by the normal timeline of July 15.

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