After two consecutive years of drought, the monsoon this year promises to be above normal, going by an early forecast.

A long-range weather forecast by climate management company Weather Risk Management Services indicates that the monsoon this year may end up 5 to 10 per cent above normal — with well-distributed rainfall over the country.

However, some areas such as the North-East may receive lower-than-normal rainfall, the forecast released on Friday — based on the dynamic climate model CFSV2 used by the US national weather agency NOAA — pointed out.

“We will be coming up with our monsoon forecast every 15 days. While it is possible that the forecast based on data collected in April will be different from that in March, I do not expect much variation,” said K Prasad, climate scientist and consultant for Weather Risk Management Services, at a press conference.

March data

Prasad said his optimism stems from the absence of significant variation in the data collected through March, which was averaged out, to arrive at the forecast.

While a long-range forecast may not be as reliable or detailed as medium- or short-range forecasts (which are much closer to the start of monsoon), it helps in setting the mood for farmers and industry, and also the government to do contingency planning if required, say experts.

“Long-range forecasts can’t be used by farmers to take sowing decisions or by the industry to take business decisions. But it is certainly a guiding factor and can help certain sectors, such as juice manufacturers, take inventory decisions,” said Vanit Kathuria, an agriculture professional.

Long-range forecast

KK Singh from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that while a long-range forecast made in the beginning of April may not be of much use at the district level, the data would be of use at the State and national levels, especially for decisions related to the input industry such as seed and fertilisers.

Elaborating on its forecast, Weather Risk said that during mid-March 2016, the tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature was weakening, but still at a strong El Nino level.

Most prediction models indicate continued weakening of El Nino conditions over the coming months, returning to neutral by late spring or early summer 2016, and a chance for La Nina development by autumn. These signals are favourable for the above normal monsoon rainfall.

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