The India Meteorological Department’s first outlook for this year’s South-West monsoon (June-September) indicates a second-straight year of deficient rains.
This has raised concerns about crop production and the economy, particularly as it will come in the aftermath of unseasonal rains and hailstorms that struck between end-February and early-April.
The Met Department on Wednesday predicted that rainfall could be 93 per cent (plus/minus five per cent) of the long period average (LPA). It classifies rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 89 cm as normal. Actual rainfall last year was 88 per cent of the LPA, the lowest in almost 30 years. The stretched monsoon period accounts for 70-75 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall.
“The onset of the South-West monsoon will be announced on May 15, and we will have a clearer idea of distribution for the June forecast,” said LS Rathore, Director-General of Meteorology, IMD.
Parts of north-west and central India are likely to be affected by the shortfall.
El Nino factored in On whether this will lead to El Nino-like conditions, Rathore said, “El Nino has been factored into this forecast but there are other parameters. Of the 14 years in the past when we had El Nino, eight years we had bad monsoon.” In India, El Nino had led to severe monsoon failure in 2002 and 2009.
Several international Met agencies have forecast a 70 per cent probability of an El Nino event in 2015. Harsh Vardhan, the Earth Sciences Minister, said constant monitoring is being done and the Prime Minister’s Office and Cabinet Secretariat have also been told to be prepared. “The latest forecast from the IMD-IITM coupled model forecast indicates El Nino conditions are likely to persist during the South-West monsoon season,” said IMD. The western disturbances, which Rathore said will not have a bearing on the South-West monsoon, caused significant damage to key Rabi season crops such as wheat as also vegetables and fruits across some 10 million hectares.
Effect on GDP, prices “Unseasonal rains since early March have already had a negative impact…a deficient monsoon, if it comes true, will shave 50 basis points (0.5 per cent) from our GDP forecast of 7.9 per cent,” said research firm Crisil.
Agri-products account for almost 40 per cent of the weight in consumer price inflation and the firm stated that it could rise by 0.5 per cent from the current forecast of 5.8 per cent. Financial services group Edelweiss said there could be some short-term impact.
“There could be upward pressure in a few categories — especially pulses and vegetables — but we do not foresee broad-based sustained rise given ample stocks of cereals with the government,” it said.