Conditions are favourable for further advancement of the monsoon into more parts of South Bay of Bengal, the entire Andaman Sea and Andaman Islands and some parts of East-Central Bay during the next two to three days as the seasonal weather system made steady progress on Tuesday, the second day after onset over the South Andaman Sea.
Meanwhile, over the Arabian Sea, India Meteorological Department (IMD) spotted a cyclonic circulation over the Lakshadweep (since moved towards Kerala coast) while another hung over North Tamil Nadu coast, helping strong westerly flows from the Arabian Sea converge over the larger South Peninsula and Sri Lanka to the South.
Together, they will bring fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds and heavy to very heavy falls over Kerala, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka during the next five days while it would be isolated heavy over Tamil Nadu until Wednesday. Isolated extremely heavy falls may lash Coastal and South Interior Karnataka on Wednesday.
Knocks at Lanka’s door
On Tuesday, the monsoon put itself on the threshold of achieving the fourth major milstone on its itnerary when the Sri Lankan Meteorological Department said that typical rainy weather is gradually establishing over the island. After Maldives, Myanmar and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Sri Lanka is the penultimate pit-stop before the monsoon hits the Kerala coast over manland India. The Sri Lankan Met Office said showers or thundershowers will occur over the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central and North-Western provinces and in Galle and Matara districts. Heavy showers about 10 cm can occur at some places in Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces and in Kandy, Nuwara-Eliya, Galle and Matara districts.
Monsoon in Myanmar
Strong winds about (40-50 kmph) can be expected at times over the western slope of the Central hills, the Northern, North-Central and North-Western provinces and in Hambantota and Trincomalee districts. Meanwhile, Myanmar said the monsoon had advanced into the southern areas of the country, the Andaman Sea and the South-East Bay on Friday (May 13), three days before India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced the arrival over the South Andaman Sea.
Deltaic areas may receive the monsoon during May 16 to 20. The Myanmar Met Office expects a low-pressure area to form over the Andaman Sea, endorsed by the numerical weather predictions by the IMD. The strong monsoon flows will lob the system across to Myanmar before it finds its moorings back in the Bay and drives the monsoon to North-East India.
The IMD has forecast widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next five days. Squally weather with wind speeds reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph (almost depression-strength) may prevail over the Andaman Sea and adjoining South-East and East-Central Bay.
North-West, North-East weather
The next five days will see widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim. Isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura. Isolated to scattered rainfall with isolated thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds are forecast over Bihar, Jharkhand, plains of West Bengal and Odisha during next 3-4 days as the monsoon inches towards East and North-East India.
Incoming western disturbances may moderate the heat over a scalded North-West India by dropping scattered to fairly widespread light or moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds across Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Isolated hailstorms are likely over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Isolated light rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds are likely over Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. Dust storms or thunderstorms may cool weather over Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.