The strong phase of monsoon might start to relent a bit after June 20, according to latest outlook from international weather models.
This would happen with the expected movement away of the weather-making Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave from the Indian Ocean region towards east to the near Pacific.
STRONG IN NORTH
This wave passes periodically high in the atmosphere from east Africa across Indian Ocean, but influences weather over ground thanks to its cloud-building potential and storm initiation.
Judging from the movement of the wave, monsoon is expected to continue to be strong over central India and adjoining North-West India for another five days to a week.
Rains over the peninsula would stay largely muted during this period except the West Coast and Konkan-Mumbai and south Gujarat.
Subsequently, rains may start to gradually lift also from North-West India even while being strong over central India and Gujarat.
EXCEPTIONAL RAIN
But monsoon has already delivered exceptionally well over the landmass - excess of 17 per cent for the country as a whole as on Tuesday.
East and North-East remained the only rain deficient region with a cumulative deficit of 40 per cent, mostly blamed to the delayed onset.
Not much relief is seen in the immediate future, what with a low-pressure area just formed in North-West Bay of Bengal forecast to travel mostly west across central India and into east Rajasthan.
The monsoon has been strong over the peninsula (excess of 55 per cent) and central India (82 per cent).
Of these, central India is forecast to witness more rains while those in the North and South relent.
WEATHER WARNING
The India Meteorological Department said in an outlook that rain or thundershowers could break out at many places over the Western Himalayan region during the next three days.
This would also spark off an increase in rainfall activity over North-West India. A few places over Central, East and North-East India also may witness thundershowers.
A weather warning said that heavy to very heavy rainfall would lash one or two places over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next two days.