India is all set to experience normal rainfall, at least 100 per cent of its long-period average (LPA) during June-September, even if there is below normal monsoon in August as predicted by the weather bureau. Besides, the good spell in July may help the overall monsoon rainfall, as predicted by India Meteorological Department (IMD).
“If everything goes on as has been forecast, there could be a normal monsoon. But, we have to see how it performs in August,” said a senior scientist in IMD.
Releasing the forecast, IMD director general M Mohapatra said the rainfall during August may be 92 per cent (234.51 mm) of the month’s LPA of 254.9 mm. If that proves correct, the rainfall during June -August will turn out to be 701.61 mm.
Mohapatra said for August and September together, the rainfall may be 94-99 per cent of the LPA of 422.8 mm, which means actual rainfall could be 401.7-418.6 mm. If the August forecast proves correct and a minimum of 94 per cent precipitation happens in the last two months, there may be at least 167.2 mm of rainfall in September, which is near its LPA of 167.9 mm.
July precipitation
Monsoon rain in July was 315.9 mm, which was 112.6 per cent of its long-period average (LPA) of 280.5 mm. IMD had predicted over 100 per cent rainfall during July. Monsoon was 91 per cent of its LPA of 165.3 mm in June.
According to IMD data, east and north-east meteorological subdivision has received 286.8 mm rainfall in July against LPA of 424.1 mm, down by 32 per cent, whereas in June its was 15 per cent below normal. The north-west meteorological subdivision has received 261.4 mm rainfall in July against LPA of 209.7 mm, up by 25 per cent, whereas in June its was 47 per cent above normal.
The central meteorological subdivision has received 391.4 mm rainfall in July against LPA of 321.3 mm, up by 22 per cent, whereas in June its was 6 per cent below normal. The south peninsula has received 295.3 mm rainfall in July against LPA of 204.5 mm, up by 44 per cent, whereas in June its was 45 per cent below normal.
First two months
All States in Central India including Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat have received normal or excess rainfall during June and July. Similarly all states in north-west subdivision including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan have reported normal or excess rains until July 31 since the season started on June 1.
In southern region, except Kerala that is deficient by 35 per cent, other States have reported normal or excess rainfall.
But, key agriculture States like Bihar, West Bengal and Jharkhand in the east and north-east subdivision are deficient, so far. Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura have also reported below normal rainfall.