Rainfall related to the onset of monsoon has been forecast for the Kerala coast from Friday/Saturday, according to a US-based forecasting agency.
Climate Forecasting System of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction made this forecast in its latest assessment of conditions evolving in the Arabian Sea.
JUNE RAINS
“India Met Department is forecasting onset of Southwest monsoon onset over Kerala coast around June 3rd, even though our model is predicting onset-related rainfall conditions around June 24-25,” the agency said.
It went on to add that the month of June is likely to witness a strong monsoon, with early indications that the rains might start to relent with beginning of July.
Back home, India Met Department said in its update on Tuesday that it too was expecting an increase in rainfall activity over Kerala, Karnataka and Lakshadweep from Friday.
Monsoon is likely to break over the Kerala coast by Monday/Tuesday (May 27/28), according to a former honcho of the Met Department, who did not wish to be identified.
India Met Department has already said that the onset of seasonal rains is likely to happen on June 3 with an error margin of four days to either side.
But the current build-up over Southeast Arabian Sea might just spring a surprise on the upside, as per the US agency forecast. Heat wave conditions are peaking over Northwest and adjoining Central India with a ‘tongue of flame’ extending right into East India.
Lull in western disturbance (low-pressure systems in North India) activity would allow the heating to become entrenched.
CORE HEATING
Air masses would rise and reduce pressure relative to the Southwest coast, inviting monsoon winds fan blow into land and bring rains along. The core of heating (‘heat low’) centred over Rajasthan with the ‘tongue to the East’ will eventually set up the all-important trough which the Bay of Bengal arm of monsoon would enter plains and farmlands.
Southwesterly winds would transport rain-bearing clouds along the Kerala coast to form the Arabian Sea arm of the monsoon.
It would meet with the Bay of Bengal arm over Central India later into the season.