Forecasters expect the South-West monsoon, which had lost its moorings in the South-East Bay of Bengal for a week after onset, to progress in a better calibrated and more organised manner from Wednesday.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said conditions could become favourable for its further advance into some more parts of the South Bay, the Andaman Islands, and the North Andaman Sea over Wednesday and Thursday.

Rough seas warned

In association with the likely strengthening of winds and increasing rain over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, the IMD has warned that rough seas will prevail over the region around the Islands and over the Andaman Sea until Friday.

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls may also break out over Assam, Meghalaya and the hills of Bengal as well as over Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. Sri Lanka, the penultimate stop for the monsoon ahead of making its onset along the Kerala coast over mainland India, is also expecting rain and winds to gather momentum during this period.

The island nation’s Met Department expects showery conditions to enhance to some extent along the flanks in the South-West during the next few days (particularly on Wednesday and Thursday).

Watch for ‘low’

The Thailand Met Department assessed that the monsoon is currently ‘moderate’ over the Andaman Sea and the South-East Bay with cloudy to partly cloudy skies elsewhere over the Bay.

But its outlook until Friday warned of swells rising up to to six feet in both the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand, and to almost 10 feet in the Andaman Sea, especially in the thundershower areas. All passing ships should exercise caution.

The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology persists with its outlook for the formation of a low-pressure area in the Bay during this period.

Meanwhile, during June 1-3, the IMD sees widespread rain with isolated heavy falls over North-East India; fairly widespread to widespread rain over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and isolated to scattered rain over the South Peninsula and Lakshadweep.

US agency outlook

It would be interesting to watch if this is linked with the latest forecasts from the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Service valid from June 1 to 8. The US agency had predicted the formation of a low-pressure area in the South-West Arabian Sea during the monsoon onset period with an inclination to intensify and progress along a familiar West-North-West track towards Yemen-Oman.

But in its latest outlook on Monday, it has projected a scenario where the system moves mainly to the North without much intensification, and turns inward (East) toward the Kerala-Karnataka coasts during June 1 to 8. If this were to happen, it could likely set up the onset of the monsoon over Kerala and go on to set up a secondary system off the Tamil Nadu coast in the larger Bay. These are early projections and would need to be verified on ground.

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