Monsoon revival in July cuts rain deficit to 9%

Powered by prodigious flows from the Bay of Bengal, the monsoon generated a significant amount of rain in July, cutting down the rainfall deficit from a peak of 33 per cent to a single digit (9 per cent) by the month-end for the country as a whole.

The prognosis looks good, at least initially, for August, with a prevailing rain-gushing low-pressure area sitting pretty over Central India on Wednesday and a much stronger system to follow in four to five days.

More rains likely

The India Met Department (IMD) has already put out a watch for a fresh ‘low’ over the North-East Bay around Sunday, which is forecast to intensify a couple of notches into a depression or a deep depression by midweek next week.

Initially, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and East Madhya Pradesh are expected to face the brunt of the system in the form of high winds, heavy to very heavy rainfall and flooding, before the system travels towards Gujarat and South-West Rajasthan.

The South Peninsula would need to wait until this system drops anchor in the Bay for some badly needed rains, though early forecasts suggest that material benefits might accrue only to Kerala, starting Monday/Tuesday next.

Rainfall along the West Coast (Including over Kerala) may increase from Saturday (August 3), the IMD said. Heavy rainfall has been forecast in Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Gujarat on Sunday, up to which forecasts are available.

The ghat regions of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka might witness rainfall on August 8 or 9 but not the plains of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and adjoining Andhra Pradesh, said an outlook from the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts.

Lean patch in South

This would mean that the rain-scarce Met subdivisions of Kerala (deficit rain of 32 per cent); Tamil Nadu and Puducherry (29 per cent); and Rayalaseema (28 per cent) might not see any significant turn for the better during this phase.

The 24 hours ending on Wednesday morning saw Jammu & Kashmir face the wrath of the currently raging monsoon, with widespread rainfall and isolated extremely heavy falls being reported from the Jammu division.

Udhampur recorded an exceptionally heavy 34.2 cm of rain while it was only slightly less intense over Katra (29.2 cm) during this phase. The causative ‘low’ lay over North-East Madhya Pradesh by Wednesday evening.

This ‘low’ is expected to weaken by Thursday, but it may not be too long before its successor forms over the North-East Bay, building on an incoming remnant of a South China Sea storm.