Three days after onset, the monsoon has moved from its start-up alignment and pushed north along the west coast reaching south Konkan on Monday.
This happened in tandem with the intensification of Sunday’s depression into tropical cyclone ‘Ashobaa’ in the afternoon.
Entire Goa, coastal Karnataka and more parts of south interior Karnataka are now under its footprint.
The northern limit passes through Ratnagiri, Shivamogga, Mysuru, Salem and Cuddalore in the peninsula and then across the Bay of Bengal into north-east India at Dhubri and Gangtok.
The monsoon is running behind schedule now; in normal times, it should have covered entire Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and a better part of Maharashtra.
Since the flows are going to feed the cyclone located out into the sea, there is no hope that rains will return to the mainland until it blows over.
High wind warning India Met Department has issued a high wind warning along the coasts of Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra on Tuesday.
Winds are likely to clock 90-100 km/hr with gusts of 120 km/hr in the region.
Sea condition will be ‘very rough’ (wave heights of 13-20 ft) ‘high’ (20-30 ft).
Fishermen from here as well as from Gujarat are advised not to venture out.
Heavy monsoon rain for the next four days would be confined to north-eastern States where the Bay of Bengal arm of the monsoon is active.
The Arabian Sea arm will revive after the cyclone dies out and fresh flows hit the west coast.
In fact, model forecasts suggest flows hitting the Konkan-Mumbai coasts from June 16.
Bay silent The Bay of Bengal would have to conjure up its own a low-pressure area and push it west-northwest across the mainland to bring the monsoon into central parts.
There is no forecast this happening anytime soon, though an experimental storm tracker picks some action off the coast of West Bengal from the weekend to early next week.
It is, however, shown tracking along the foothills of the Himalayas, going all the way into west Rajasthan and even across the border into north-east Pakistan.
This movement would not help the larger cause of the monsoon; in fact it would only represent a weak phase when the rains are active only in the foothills and along the West Coast.