Monsoon set to make further inroads

The monsoon is set to make inroads into Central India, the South Peninsula and North-West India amid concerns that its progress as well as kharif sowing is not satisfactory.

The all-important monsoon trough has reverted to its normal position over North India in what is being taken as a strong signal for a further escalation in rain activity over Central India and the South Peninsula for at least a week.

In turn, rainfall activity should also increase over North-West India during the next two days once the monsoon easterlies begin to blow in full strength from the Bay of Bengal along the monsoon trough.

The proceedings will reach a peak with the formation of a low-pressure area over the North Bay of Bengal (off the Odisha-Bengal coasts) — its likely intensification — and move along the trough towards Central and North-West India.

 

 

‘Next two weeks crucial’

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that, during this period, East and North-East India would continue to witness subdued monsoon conditions since the bulk of the rain would move in a west-north-west direction to Central and adjoining North-West India.

Meanwhile, Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Care Ratings, said in a report that the next two weeks will be crucial for determining crop output conjectures now that MSPs have been announced by the government.

As of July 6, the picture is less than satisfactory, with the area sown being 14.1 per cent lower than what it was last year. While the monsoon season officially lasts for four months, July becomes critical in terms of farmers sowing the seeds of their respective products.

The relatively late announcement of the MSP would be one factor that could have delayed cropping decisions, considering that prices of products in the pulses and oilseeds complexes came down sharply last year due to higher production, which could have caused farmers to wait for this announcement. The next two weeks will hence be critical for the final production prospects.

He said that area sown has been lower for all the broad categories of farm products with the exception of sugarcane. If this is juxtaposed with the recent announcement of MSPs, it can be seen that the thrust has been on growing more cotton.

The incentive for tur is lower with around a 4 per cent increase in MSP, which indicates that sowing will be lower this year. For oilseeds like groundnut and soybean, the increase is between 10-11 per cent, which is more at the median level of MSP increases announced for the kharif season.

He said that cumulative rainfall till July 4 is 6.6 per cent lower than normal at 184.7 mm as against a normal of 197.8 mm. As many as 25 of the 36 met divisions have received normal to surplus rainfall.

Punjab enjoys excess

Punjab is the only region that received large excess rainfall, 111 per cent above normal level. This reflects a promising sowing season for the state. The regions that are strong in agriculture but have received less than normal rainfall are concentrated in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Gujarat, East Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand.

The Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu region continues to be the only region receiving largely deficient rainfall, deviating at 75 per cent less than the normal rainfall. Crops such as rice, maize, oilseeds and, to an extent, pulses, will be affected in these regions in case the monsoon does not return to normalcy in the next two weeks.

The levels in reservoirs are also just about lower than normal at 20.3 per cent of the full reservoir level (FRL) (as against the normal of 21 per cent). This is based on the full reservoir level (FRL) of 162 billion cubic metres, with a current level of 32.8 billion cubic metres.

In Madhya Pradesh, sowing can continue for maize, soybean and groundnut and in Chattisgarh, nursery sowing of rice and sowing of soybean, til, redgram, maize, and groundnut.

Gujarat focus

There is good rainfall forecast for major parts of the Gujarat except Saurashtra and the South Gujarat region next week. A general advisory from the Hyderabad-based All India Coordinated Research Project (AICRP) on Agrometeorology (Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture) said that there is a forecast of rainfall as the extended range forecast of Gujarat reveals deficit rainfall from July 6-12 and normal to above-normal rainfall between July 13-19.

In view of the forecast after July 12, groundnut has to be replaced with sesame or pulses in Saurashtra and the South Gujarat region. Cotton also has to be taken up as a contingency crop in these regions, said Vijaya Kumar, Project Coordinator (Agri Meteorology) at AICRP.

In Kutch and North Gujarat, sorghum, blackgram, sesame, castor and short-duration pigeonpea can be planted if rainfall revives after July 12.

The IMD’s extended range weather forecast says normal to above normal rainfall is likely for subdivisions of the West Coast and Central India from July 13 to 19. A warning for flooding of standing crops may not be required at this stage. People may observe local forecasts and take measures accordingly, Vijaya Kumar said.