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The monsoon covered Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and parts of South Chhattisgarh and Odisha on Wednesday, braving signs of fatigue after misdirecting a rain-laden deep depression into Bangladesh a couple of days ago.
The Bay of Bengal is expected to take time to organise the flows after the ‘flash’ deep depression churned its waters to a scale rarely witnessed at this time of the year and laying to waste a lot of kinetic energy in the process.
The deep depression had swung away from North India a major monsoon enabler, a trough that links North-West India with the Bay of Bengal through which easterlies bring monsoon rains to East, Central and North-West India.
Ideally, one end (South-East) of the trough should be anchored in the Bay waters so that moisture-laden easterlies can fan out onto land to precipitate rains.
The tip of the trough is now over land, which means it is cut off from moisture in the Bay. This has led to a reduction in the quantum of rainfall over East India.
The monsoon has not been able to enter Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha. These areas should normally get covered by June 15, but indications are that they will need to wait for a few days more.
Revival in a weekThe India Met Department (IMD) said on Wednesday that conditions are favourable for the advance of the monsoon into parts of Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Bengal over the next four days.
For any organised revival of the monsoon, the trough over North India has to re-align itself in such a manner that one of its extremities gets anchored in the Bay of Bengal. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts says it will take a few days for this to happen. It says the monsoon flows over the Arabian Sea would strengthen around June 20, indicating that the trough would have found its elusive moorings in the Bay by that time.
Possibility of more rainThe US National Centre for Environmental Prediction seems to agree, by signalling the possibility of enhanced rain along the West Coast and East and parts of East India and adjoining Central India from June 21 to 29.
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