The southwest monsoon, which contributes 75 per cent of India’s annual normal rainfall of 116 cm, is set to commence its withdrawal journey around September 23, which is six days delayed from its normal schedule day of September 17.
“Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from parts of West Rajasthan and Kachchh around September 23,” the India Meteorological Department said in a statement Saturday.
From June 1, when the monsoon season began, the monsoon rainfall has been 6 per cent above normal at 87.59 cm until Saturday, as against its long period average (1971-2020) of 82.72 cm between June 1 and September 21. “The rain till date has exceeded the season’s LPA of 86.86 cm. With more precipitation seen in next few days in several states, the season may end up with 6 per cent surplus, exactly as predicted in April,” said a senior scientist.
IMD had forecast this year’s monsoon to be in the “above normal” range, quantitatively 106 per cent of the LPA, with a model error of ± 4 per cent. It also forecast that the monsoon was likely to be above normal over Central and Southern India, normal over the North-West region, and below normal over North-East India.
So far, the monsoon has been “above normal” over Central and Southern India, normal over the North-West region, and “deficient” over North-East India.
This year, the monsoon onset was recorded simultaneously over Kerala and northeastern states on May 30, which is two days before the normal schedule over Kerala and six days before the normal date over the northeast region. The southwest monsoon covered the entire country on July 2, which is six days earlier than its normal schedule.