Onset of the South-West monsoon has delayed for both Myanmar and Sri Lanka by almost the same margin of five to six days, it is expected along the Kerala coast over mainland India.
The monsoon made a timely onset over the South Andaman Sea and neighbourhood last Saturday, but got disoriented after the south-westerly flows lost their early momentum.
India Met Department (IMD) expects it to stride from tomorrow (Wednesday) after the week-long delay, and proceed to precipitate the onset later over North-East India and Kerala.
Maintains ‘low’ watch
The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology announced on Tuesday morning that the rains may reach Central Myanmar between June 1 and 5.
The southern part and the deltaic region witnessed the arrival of the seasonal rains almost around the normal date after they materialised over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
The Myanmar Met has persisted with the outlook for formation of a low-pressure area during the first week of June, a forecast that has been endorsed by a few global weather models.
The monsoon is expected to cover the whole country during June 6 to 10, a week that could likely see it makes the eagerly awaited tryst with Kerala coast.
Sri Lanka is the penultimate stop for the monsoon, with the mean date for onset over the island nation being May 22. The rains should normally reach the Kerala coast within a week.
But the Sri Lankan Met Department has not mentioned about the onset, except that monsoon-friendly southwesterly flows are currently gathering speed over the southern parts of the country.
Progress in Bay
The monsoon may hit Sri Lanka either in a burst of rains under a low-pressure area or depression, or may establish quietly during the third week of May.
Meanwhile, to further West-South-West, the Maldives atolls are experiencing windy conditions from Tuesday morning with speeds ranging from 24- to 37 km/hr gusting to 55 km/hr.
It could not, however, be immediately ascertained if the monsoon has set in there, with mid-May being the normal time for onset. But the local Met department has forecast a below normal rain during May.
The IMD expects conditions to become favourable for advance of the monsoon into some more parts of the Bay, the Andaman Islands and the North Andaman Sea from tomorrow (Wednesday).
In association with the likely strengthening of winds and enhanced rainfall over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, rough seas may prevail around on both Wednesday and Thursday.
Fairly widespread to widespread rain with isolated heavy fall is being predicted for Assam, Meghalaya, hills of Bengal and Sikkim during these days and the rest of North-East India on subsequent two days (Thursday and Friday).