The northern limit of monsoon has failed to progress for a second day after emerging from an enforced week-long hiatus across south India.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday that the northern limit stayed put to Harnai, Satara, Gadag, Mysore, Vellore and Chennai to Gangtok alignment.
SPORADIC RAIN
Overnight on Friday, it rained sporadically along the west coast and the northeast where the monsoon has already made its onset.
Latest outlook from the northwest Pacific suggests that typhoon ‘Guchol’ may ramp up to category-3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale of storm intensity.
But the storm may start weakening from Monday, and still leave some room for the Indian monsoon to find its feet by midweek next week.
The IMD is betting on the formation of a helpful cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal by Monday, which would scale up rains over east India.
It also believes the circulation might just go on to intensify and become a low-pressure area before crossing coast and entering Andhra Pradesh.
‘LOW’ LIKELY
The presence of a strong typhoon in the northwest Pacific would not allow this to happen; and this is where weakening of ‘Guchol’ would help.
US National Centres for Environmental Prediction has forecast moderate to heavy rainfall over Andhra Pradesh during the week ending Friday next.
The IMD has assessed that conditions are favourable for advance of monsoon into entire central Arabian Sea, Konkan and Tamil Nadu during the next three days.
The rains may enter more parts of interior Maharashtra, interior Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh during this phase.
RAINS FOR EAST
Rain or thundershowers would break out at one or two places over east India during this period and increase thereafter.
The subsequent three days would see the monsoon enter West Bengal, Orissa, Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh.
A warning valid for Saturday said heavy rain may lash Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and the rest of northeast India beside Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep.