Rain deficit has been cut down to 34 per cent from 42 per cent a week ago but individual Met subdivision rain deficits in west and northwest India still averages much above 60 per cent.
The worst affected continues to be Saurashtra (62 per cent); east Gujarat (77 per cent); west Rajasthan (51 per cent); Punjab-Haryana-Delhi (60 per cent); and west Uttar Pradesh (72 per cent).
In the South, Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema have entered in the ‘normal rain’ category. They are joined by Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and Arunachal Pradesh in the East.
The rest of the country is all in the ‘deficient’ (-20- to -59 per cent) category.
An incoming low-pressure area likely impacting the East and adjoining east-central parts of the country from Sunday may help further improve the situation.
There are also indications that another ‘low’ spring up in the Bay next week, making it the third in the series, making for a frequency that is associated with active monsoon phase.
Strong monsoon Meanwhile, the US Climate Prediction Centre has warned that a strong monsoon phase would envelop west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Konkan-Mumbai during next week.
This is expected to result from the onward movement of disparate weather system currently active over Gujarat (an upper air circulation); Uttar Pradesh (resident ‘low’); and an incoming new-born ‘low.’
All these might come face to face and even converge as a massive rain system over Madhya Pradesh moving west to Gujarat and Konkan-Mumbai during the week.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction too depicts a similar outlook, suggesting heavy rainfall for the rest of the west coast also during the period.
New pacific storm In the northwest Pacific, a new tropical storm named Matmo has taken birth even as predecessor typhoon strengthened into a monster category-4 storm before making a first landfall over Hainan Island.
It will step out next into the Gulf of Tonkin to the west, and aim for the Vietnamese coast for a second landfall on Saturday.
Tropical storm Matmo too is forecast to become a typhoon in that basin. It would take a west-northwest track, much more northerly than Rammasun, towards Taiwan.
Both typhoons are seen generating lateral gains for the Indian monsoon in the form of incoming circulations.
The Rammasun offspring is forecast to grow as a ‘low’ in the Bay of Bengal by Sunday; initial forecasts suggest the Matmo remnant would earn its spurs by Sunday next (July 27).
This would help sustain the monsoon well into the month-end, if not early into August.