As the 2023 South-West monsoon prepares to exit the landscape at a remarkably fast pace, western disturbances have sought to fill the space over North-West India bringing in light to moderate rain while cyclonic circulations and the odd helpful trough have popped up over parts of the South Peninsula where remnant monsoon will play out for some more time.
Global models suggest western disturbances to become active over North-West India, West India and parts of Central India during the week ending October 17, bringing parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana-Delhi-Chandigarh, Uttarakhand, and even parts of West Madhya Pradesh under light to moderate rain cover.
Seasonal wind transition
Rain is also indicated for parts of Kerala and Karnataka as cyclonic circulations rule during this period. The fast-paced withdrawal of the monsoon will alter the wind pattern over both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal from being South-West to North-East to signal the transition of the seasonal transition, though the actual declaration may take longer to accomplish.
During the nine days since the end of the formal monsoon season (June-September) on September 30, excess to heavy rainfall has lashed East India as well as the West Coast (Konkan and Goa, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala). A similar weather pattern is expected to sustain over these regions for another couple of days, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD).
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Withdrawal line
The monsoon has withdrawn from entire East Uttar Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh; parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka; and most parts of Maharashtra on Monday. The line of withdrawal passed through Raxaul, Daltonganj, Kanker, Ramagundam, Bijapur and Vengurla. Winds are expected to turn north-easterly over entire South Peninsula over next 10 days, though weak. The IMD has forecast a normal North-East monsoon season this time round.