The withdrawal process of monsoon is expected to reach Central India (South-East Maharashtra, West Chhattisgarh and North Telangana) between October 7 and 17 (+/-5 days).
This is as per an outlook given out 70 days in advance by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Potsdam-Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung e.V.).
The Germany-based institute gave an 84 per cent probability for this eventuality, after it had correctly forecast the arrival of the monsoon in the region 40 days in advance.
Potsdam Institute bases its forecasts on a ‘teleconnection’ between what it describes as two tipping points of the Indian monsoon – the Eastern Ghats in Central India and North Pakistan.
The monsoon withdrawal dates over Central India issued by the Institute more or less correspond with the normal dates set by India Meteorological Department (IMD).
According to the IMD schedule, it starts withdrawing from September 1 in West Rajasthan and proceeds to sign out from the rest of the country from North to South over the next month-and-a-half.
NORTH-EAST MONSOON
The German Institute appears to suggest that the withdrawal process may be on schedule unlike when it was disrupted by intervening heavy rains over North-West, East and Central India in the recent past.
This would likely set the stage for a timely onset over the North-East monsoon (or the monsoon in reverse) over the southern parts of the peninsula.
The North-East monsoon can establish only after the south-westerly wind regime of the preceding monsoon has been brought to an end.
The normal date for the North-East monsoon to set in over Tamil Nadu, and parts of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala is between October 15 to 20.
The stakes are high for the these states given the south-west monsoon has left a considerable deficit even as it enters the second half into August from today.