No major revival of monsoon seen until month end

Model predictions suggest that there will likely be no major revival of monsoon for the next 20 days, leading to below-normal rains for July.

The monsoon will be confined to the foothills of the Himalayas until last week of July, says an extended forecast from the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

Excess rain in the region is expected to fill up the rivers of north India while central and peninsular India may stay largely dry. The US Climate Prediction Centre concurs with this outlook for the next fortnight, though it does not rule out a round of showers for east and central India from enhanced activity in the Bay of Bengal.

Unlike earlier projections, models do not see an organised weather system (low-pressure area) from the Bay piloting the showers over the landmass during this period. A best-case scenario is that conducive conditions for a monsoon revival may evolve by around July 25 after the busy typhoon season ends in the west Pacific.

The India Met Department has already said that July is likely to see below normal rains (92 per cent of the long-period average). Observed conditions and short-term model forecasts tend to support this outlook.

The weekly rain surplus that came in at 44 per cent until June 24 plummeted to a deficit of 14 per cent by the following week ending July 1, marking a tapering of the monsoon activity.

As on Monday, the overall rain surplus has been reduced to zero after the monsoon forfeited the huge gains made earlier in June.

Of the four agro-climatic regions, only north-west India retains the surplus.