Normal to slightly warm winter but normal rainfall is the forecast for most of northwest India from the New Year, 2015.
In fact, some areas in Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining Punjab and Himachal Pradesh may get excess rainfall.
In this manner, early indications suggest good tidings for standing rabi crops in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and west Uttar Pradesh.
BusinessLine analysed December-based forecast outlooks maintained by three global agencies – International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Research Institute for Global Change and Application Laboratory, Jamstec, Japan.
These models have provided for the development of El Nino conditions in the east Pacific, probabilities for which are elevated during January-February-March.
Warmer winter
Generally, most parts of western Europe, Africa, West Asia, east and west Russia, India, China, Southeast Asia, South America, Canada, west US and the Far East, including Japan, will experience a warmer-than-normal winter.
On the other hand, the UK, south Russia, and east US in particular will experience colder-than-normal condition.
Rainfall trends indicate that most parts of Southeast Asia, northern Australia, southern Africa, and Brazil will experience a drier than normal conditions.
Wetter than normal conditions are to be expected in the US, in particular the west parts.