North-east monsoon may break in over south peninsular India by Monday (October 24), about four days later than normal.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) bulletin said that meteorological conditions are becoming favourable for the commencement of the seasonal showers by that day. This is likely to translate into a wet Diwali for most parts of the south peninsula.
WAY CLEARED
The way for the ‘monsoon in reverse' may now have been cleared after the rogue deep depression in the Bay of Bengal unsettled the pattern dragging the flows away to the north-east. The previous day's deep depression crossed over the Bangladesh coast the same night and lay on Thursday evening as a low pressure area over Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh, Mizoram and north-east Bay of Bengal. The system is expected to become still weaker by the weekend, setting the stage for monsoon easterlies to north-easterlies to strengthen and head straight towards peninsular India coast.
TO GET STRONGER
According to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction, the north-east monsoon may not gather steam until October 28 when a strong rain wave is shown as pushing its way across south and adjoining south-west Bay of Bengal. The entire eastern parts of Sri Lanka and adjoining extreme south peninsular Tamil Nadu are expected to get hit in the process. Meanwhile on Thursday, satellite imagery showed convective (rain-bearing) clouds rising up over south interior Karnataka, Kerala, northe-ast, adjoining central and south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and east central and south Arabian Sea.
SHORT-TERM VIEW
An IMD outlook until Sunday said rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands. It would be isolated places over the remaining parts of peninsular India. Rain or thundershowers has also been forecast at many places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura from westerly wave action. An extended outlook until Tuesday (October 25) said that rain or thundershowers could occur at many places over extreme south peninsular India.