Fortunes of the Indian monsoon are now closely tied to the tantrums of tropical storm ‘Guchol’ in the northwest Pacific.
In the absence of any other stronger system in close vicinity (Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal), the flows are being guided by this Pacific storm.
London-based Tropical Storm Risk Group expects ‘Guchol’ to ramp up into a category-2 typhoon (cyclone) on the Saffir-Simpson scale in terms of storm intensity.
Storms worldwide are classified into five such categories, with category-5 being the most powerful.
The strengthening phase of ‘Guchol’ is forecast to extend until June 21, according to this forecast.
The southwesterly monsoon flows also are expected to peak during this phase, bringing heavy rain to areas where it has already made an onset.
Moot question
The moot question is whether these flows across the Bay of Bengal could be tamed and stopped to change direction as southeasterlies to bring rains into the farming heartland of India.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects a cyclonic circulation to form in the northwest Bay, which would do exactly this.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts too has forecast such a possibility, but it is not known whether ‘Guchol’s strengthening prospects are factored in.
So it bears watching how the Bay of Bengal behaves during the week-end and into the next, a crucial period from the monsoon viewpoint.