Pacific storm to re-charge monsoon, bring heavy rain to North India

Incoming Pacific typhoon Doksuri, which is racing to the south of Hong Kong for a landfall over Vietnam, would make a qualitative change to the Indian monsoon during what is normally its last fortnight of active life.

‘Doksuri’ is forecast to send in a ‘pulse’ and set up a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal, which could even grow as a depression, to bring heavy rain initially over East India and later over Central India.

Many other parts of the country would stand to benefit, including West, North-West and the South, the last of which is already witnessing heavy- to very-rainfall at a number of places. With the monsoon entering the last 15 days, it has reversed the scenario in the North and South to something weather watchers hardly figured in as late as the half-way mark in August. South India has progressively gained from a monsoon vigorously lashing its tail, while parts of Central India and adjoining North-West India dried up prematurely, leaving some deficit.

The pulse from typhoon Doksuri would bring heavy rains to the North from September 20, especially over Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, West Rajasthan, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh, says a US agency forecast.

Heavy rains would also lash entire Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, North Tamil Nadu and Kerala during the week under reference (September 20 to 26).

But in the intervening week (September 13 to 19), dry conditions would continue to persist over most of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi.

The shifting of gear in the North by the monsoon would further delay its scheduled withdrawal (due from September 1), since heavy rain in many parts of the country would not allow it to proceed.

The overall rainfall deficit for the country as a whole stood at six per cent as on Thursday, shared by Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi (-29 per cent); West Uttar Pradesh (-38 per cent); East Uttar Pradesh (-28 per cent); West Madhya Pradesh (-22 per cent); EastMadhya Pradesh (-29 per cent); Vidarbha (-27 per cent); and Coastal Karnataka (-20 per cent).

Tamil Nadu, normally a rain-shadow region for the South-West monsoon, is a surprise beneficiary with an excess rainfall of +45 per cent.

West Rajasthan (+43 per cent); Saurashtra & Kutch (+38 per cent); Rayalaseema (+25 per cent); and Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura (+27) are the other Met subdivisions to record a surplus.