The country's rice output is likely to fall by 1.9 million tonnes (mt) to 94.48 mt in kharif season this year due to poor rain as well as floods.
According to official sources, production of pulses and coarse cereals is estimated to have fallen, dragging the overall foodgrains output in kharif (summer-sown) season to 134.67 mt from record 138.52 mt during last kharif season.
Kharif foodgrains basket comprises rice, pulses and coarse cereals. Harvesting will start from next month. Barring sugarcane, the production of all major kharif crops is likely to decline.
The Union Agriculture Ministry will release its first advance estimate on Monday.
Rice ouptut is estimated to fall at 94.48 mt in the kharif season of the 2017-18 crop year (July-June) from record 96.39 mt during last kharif, the official who did not wish to be named said.
Pulses output could drop to 8.71 mt from record 9.42 mt due to depressed prices and poor rains. Production of tur and urad is pegged at 3.99 mt and 2.53 mt, respectively. Coarse cereals output is also seen lower at 31.49 mt against 32.71 mt during last kharif season.
Among cash crops, cotton output is estimated to be slightly lower at 32.27 million bales (of 170 kg each) in the 2017-18 crop year (July-June) from 33.09 million bales. However, sugarcane output might rise to 337.69 mt from 306.72 mt.
Oilseeds output is estimated to be down at 20.68 mt in the kharif season of this year from 22.40 mt in the year-ago period. Soyabean output has been pegged at 12.22 mt. The fall in kharif output is attributed to dry spell as well as floods in some parts of the country.
The overall southwest monsoon, crucial for rain-fed kharif crops, was projected to be normal, but till first week of this month it was less by five per cent. Assam, Bihar, Gujarat and Rajasthan witnessed floods, while parts of Karnataka, Chhattisgarh and Tamil Nadu faced dry spell.
The kharif output estimates might be revised later taking feedback from states. The ministry releases four estimates before the final one at different stages of harvesting.