Poor monsoon rains across the contiguous stretch covering Vidarbha, Marathwada (in Maharashtra), North Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh (AP) — plus the whole of Gujarat — have impacted planting of cotton and oilseeds in the current kharif season.
According to data compiled by the Agriculture Ministry, farmers have sown only 35.17 lakh hectares (lh) under cotton against a corresponding coverage of 45.19 lh during this period last year.
Acreages are lower in Maharashtra (5.31 lh versus 13.89 lh), AP (4.76 lh versus 6.04 lh) and Gujarat (4.55 lh versus 7.08 lh), while being higher in the irrigated North-West belt of Punjab (5.75 lh versus 5.59 lh), Haryana (5.98 lh versus 4.92 lh) and North Rajasthan (4.30 lh versus 3.33 lh).
“The dry spell so far is a concern, though farmers have a sowing window till July 20 in Vidarbha, Marathwada and Gujarat and going up to the first week of August in AP,” said Dr K. R. Kranthi, Director, Central Institute for Cotton Research at Nagpur.
According to him, the rains are required mainly during the 4-5 days between sowing and germination. “Once germination happens, the sapling can manage without rains for 10-15 days by subsisting on the moisture from the soil,” he noted, adding that the next of couple weeks are crucial for the country's rain-fed cotton crop.
The same is the case with oilseeds, especially groundnut — where the area covered till now, at 8.63 lh, is below last year's corresponding 13.46 lh. Gujarat (3.76 lh versus 8.10 lh) and AP (1.24 lh versus 2.91 lh) have both reported declines.
There has been a huge dip, likewise, in Maharashtra's soyabean area, from 8.53 lh to 3.46 lh. In Madhya Pradesh, data are still awaited from the State Government, even as Mr Rajesh Agrawal of the Indore-based Soyabean Processors' Association of India estimated 50 per cent of sowing to have been completed in most of the State, barring the Indore division. “We have time till July 15, after which yields might get affected,” he pointed out.
All this is reflective of how the monsoon has behaved: While the all-India average rainfall has been 11 per cent above ‘normal' in June, it has been well below par in Gujarat (-88 per cent), Saurashtra-Kutch (-74 per cent), Marathwada (-53 per cent), Vidarbha (-18 per cent), Telangana (-43 per cent), Rayalaseema (-25 per cent), coastal AP (-30 per cent) and North Interior Karnataka (-14 per cent).
Rains seen picking up
The somewhat good news is the India Meteorological Department's forecast of rains picking up over Central India from Wednesday. The favourable upper air level conditions generated by a ‘Madden-Julian Oscillation' are seen to bring some life-savings showers to coastal AP, Rayalaseema, Telangana and Vidarbha – though not strong enough to cover the rest of Maharashtra, north interior Karnataka or Gujarat.
Moreover, even this emerging wet spell may not last long in the absence of any depression or low pressure system in the Bay of Bengal. Global models do not indicate the initiation of any such activity in the Bay during the coming week as well as the week to follow. And that may not be really good news.