KHARIF WATCH. Poor rains to spoil party for Gujarat groundnut farmers

Many farmers in Gujarat shifted to groundnut this year, but the sluggish monsoon in key growing regions is likely to spoil the party for them.

A section of Gujarat farmers moved to groundnut from cotton this year due to poor realisations from the fibre crop last year; the cotton acreage in Gujarat has dropped this year to 27,53,100 hectares against 30,02,600 hectares last year.

In contrast, the area under groundnut in Gujarat has increased by about 70,000 hectares over last year.

“Though the groundnut acreage has increased in Gujarat, the rise is not significant enough to lead to a bumper crop. On the contrary, the deficient rains may affect the crop, thereby squeezing supplies,” said Govindbhai Patel, a commodity expert of Rajkot.

As of September 1, the heartland of the country’s groundnut cultivation, Saurashtra had about 11.50 lakh hectares (lh) under the crop out of the 12.95 lh in Gujarat.

India’s total groundnut acreage is estimated at 34.72 lh.

Patel believes that even if there has been an increase in the groundnut acreage in Gujarat, the national scene continues to be bleak, casting a shadow on crop’s prospects.

Nationally, the acreage is down by about one lakh hectares. The decline is mainly in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, where deficient rainfall has hit sowing.

Gujarat, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu account for close to 90 per cent of the total groundnut output.

“We are currently, hand-to-mouth with regard to groundnut inventory. We see a situation very similar to last year when production dropped due to a drought-like situation,” added Patel. Dilip Parmar, a senior research analyst at Kunverji Commodities, maintained that exports are likely to surge from September and may give a boost to prices.

“Normally, export demand for peanuts is more during November-December. This year, we expect the demand to be ‘steady to positive’ but the yield outlook remains on the lower side due to the weak monsoon. This will help maintain a firm price trend,” said Parmar.

According to a report by Acharya NG Ranga Agricultural University in Hyderabad, the agriculture market intelligence committee of SV Agricultural College, Tirupati, has forecast (using econometric analysis of modal prices of Kurnool market) that groundnut prices at harvest would be around ₹4,000 a quintal.

Normally, groundnut sowing takes place during June-July, while flowering takes place in August and yield starts showing from September onwards.

“This year, due to weak monsoon, the season has got extended. The Solvent Extractors Association will take up the crop survey for groundnut in October. Only after that can production projections be made,” said BV Mehta, Executive Director, SEA of India.

(With inputs from New Delhi/Bengaluru bureaus)