India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared a pre-cyclone watch for the Odisha-West Bengal coast with a low-pressure area likely forming over east-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea by Monday, which may intensify into a depression by Tuesday morning with further prospects for rapid intensification
The would-be depression may move west-northwestwards and intensify further into a cyclone, the first of the north-east monsoon season, by the next day (Wednesday).
It may shift track to north-west to reach the north-west Bay off Odisha-West Bengal coasts by Thursday morning, though the IMD did not indicate a date, time and place for landfall.
Severe cyclone likely
Projected wind speed profiles suggest the cyclone could strengthen become a severe cyclone. The IMD has warned that squally winds speeding 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr may commence along the Odisha and West Bengal casts from Wednesday morning.
They would gradually increase becoming gale winds reaching a speed of 100-110 km/hr gusting to 120 km/hr (severe cyclone) from Thursday morning, suggesting that landfall would be sometime further away.
Ahead of this, squally wind speeds over east-central Bay, may reach speeds of 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr on Monday; 55-65 km/hr gusting to 75 km/hr by Tuesday evening; and 70-90 km/hr gusting to 100 km/hr from Wednesday evening to Thursday morning.
Winds with speeds of 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr may commence over north Bay from Wednesday morning.
Landfall likely by Friday
Wind speeds may achieve gale wind speeds reaching 100-110 km/hr gusting to 120 km/hr over north Bay from Thursday evening to Friday morning. These may wind down thereafter, signalling a landfall by noon, which needs to be confirmed .
Sunday’s outlook said light to moderate rain is likely over the Andaman Islands on both Sunday and Monday even as the low-pressure area brews in the neighbourhood. It would be heavy to very heavy rainfall (7-20 cm)at isolated places over the islands on both days.
Rainfall outlook
Light to moderate rain is also likely at most places over Odisha on Wednesday with heavy rain(07-11 cm)at isolated places.
It would intensify to become heavy to very heavy at a few places and extremely heavy rainfall (≥ 21 cm) at isolated places on Thursday and Friday.
Adjoining coastal North Andhra Pradesh may also receive light to moderate rain at many places with heavy rain at isolated places on these days.
Coastal districts of West Bengal may get light to moderate rain on Wednesday with heavy rain at isolated places, and heavy to very heavy rain at a few places over the plains on Thursday and Friday.