COMMODITY COMMENTARY. Pulses production trapped in range as planting nears saturation

It was heartening that the country’s pulses production broke the 17-18 million tonnes (mt) barrier in 2017-18 and went beyond the 20-mt mark towards greater self-reliance and lower import.

However, it is increasingly clear that pulses production is now trapped in the 21-23 mt range, going by the last four years. To be sure, the market knows that government numbers are overstated at 5-10 per cent.

Even in the current year, 2021-22, with record planting in both kharif and rabi seasons, aggregate annual pulses output would not exceed 22 mt. Readying for harvest currently is the rabi crop in 16.4 million hectares (mh), as per government estimate, which is only a tad higher compared with the previous year.

Chickpea or chana area has reached a new high of 11.3 mh (10.9 mh last year) while lentil (masur) is at a distant 1.7 mh, nearly unchanged from last year. Field pea, urad, moong and minor pulses account for the rest.

Considering the planted area, weather conditions and yield trends, rabi pulses harvest would near 13.5 mt, with chana at about 9.0 mt and lentil 1.4 mt.

Together with kharif pulse harvest, estimated at 8.5 mt (government number is higher at 9.3 mt, but is sure to be revised down), total pulses production in 2021-22 would be 22 mt.

Given the high market rates of lentil, a marked increase in planting was expected but, surprisingly, that has not happened. So, higher prices alone may not influence ’ planting decisions.

Overdue breakthrough

There are lessons for policymakers and  trade. Clearly, the planted area for pulses is reaching saturation. We cannot expect a marked increase in cultivation unless there are conscious efforts to diversify from fine cereals. For pulse crops, a breakthrough in seed technology is overdue.

It cannot be said with certainty that pulses growers have benefited from higher minimum support price (MSP) or market price. If anything, market rates are mostly barely above MSP and, in some cases, even lower. So, growers’ incomes have been fluctuating. Importantly, prices have not had any positive impact on planting decision or input management.

The government has been focusing on production alone. While it is indeed necessary to produce more to meet demand, more attention should be paid to boosting consumption. Growers’ incomes are tied to growth in consumption demand and trade policy. The poor nutrition status of the population demands making pulses integral to public funded welfare programmes such as NFSA and TPDS.

Need for import data

Focus on trade policy is equally important. India should remain a part of the global value chain. The current switch-on, switch-off policy is a knee-jerk reaction to short-term challenges. We need a long-term and stable trade and tariff policy that advances the interests of growers and consumers alike.

Importantly, New Delhi has no clue about the import plans of private trade and lacks forward guidance. The Government’s research and commercial intelligence capabilities leave much to be desired.

A system of regulation and monitoring of pulse import is necessary. Regulating the trade through contract registration and monitoring of arrivals would provide policymakers adequate data to make an informed intervention in the market. Today, policy decisions are taken without adequate data.

(The writer is a policy commentator and agribusiness specialist. Views are personal)