Rain threat to Gujarat, Konkan, West Coast as ‘low’ heads in from Bay

Satellite map on Tuesday afternoon revealed rain clouds over the West Coast, South Peninsula, Central India and parts of North-West India East as previous day’s low-pressure area crawled up from the waters and settled over South Chhattisgarh. The land-based trough in which it was embedded continued to lie South of normal, indicating active monsoon conditions. 

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the monsoon trough was aligned along an axis from Jaisalmer and Kota in Rajasthan; Raisen (Madhya Pradesh); centre of the ‘low’ over South Chhattisgarh and adjoining Vidarbha; and Gopalpur (Odisha) while its south-eastern tip lay anchored in the Bay, opening a window for a follow-up ‘low’ over the waters sooner than later. 

Follow-up ‘low’ soon

The IMD has predicted the second ‘low’ over West-Central and adjoining North-West Bay by Friday. A live monsoon trough with a ‘low’ at its tip throws up the question of which comes first. Meteorologists are divided over whether it is a ‘low’ that initiates the trough, the monsoon backbone over the plains of North-West and Central India, or the other way round. In fact, the IMD’s short- to medium-term outlook doesn’t rule out the possibility of a third ‘low’ popping up before the month is out. 

Elsewhere, a western disturbance lay close to North-West Rajasthan, backed by a cyclonic circulation not far behind, even as it ran into feeble monsoon south-easterlies blowing across the monsoon trough. Their interaction has set up clouds over an area extending from South Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Telangana, parts of Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh. 

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Heavy rain forecast

A five-day outlook from IMD has predicted heavy to very heavy rainfall over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe during next five days. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall very likely over Konkan & Goa on THursday and Friday; and over Madhya Maharashtra for three days from Thursday.

Isolated very heavy ‘out of turn’ rain is likely over Tamil Nadu on Wednesday while this will apply also for West Madhya Pradesh; over Vidarbha on Friday and Saturday; and over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Telangana for three days from Thursday as the second low-pressure pops up over the nearby Bay waters. To further East, isolated very heavy rainfall has been forecast for Odisha on Friday and Saturday; and over Assam & Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura on Saturday.