The rain deficit has been brought down to below 20 per cent for the first time this season as the active monsoon phase sustained early into August.
Rainfall statistics as of yesterday showed that the overall deficit stood at 19 per cent. Central India has achieved a spectacular comeback with the deficit narrowing to single digits (7 per cent).
Northwest India was still left with considerable shortfall of 33 per cent; east and northeast India at 26 per cent; and south peninsula 16 per cent.
Trends for the next two weeks suggest that rains are likely to get concentrated along the west coast an northeast, and to some extent over parts of the peninsula.
Yesterday’s deep depression has weakened as a depression, moved mainly to the west overnight, and lies over northeast Madhya Pradesh this morning.
It ensured that the monsoon stay ‘vigorous’ over Odisha and Chhattisgarh and ‘active’ over Gangetic West Bengal, west Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, east Rajasthan, east Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Vidarbha, Telangana, coastal and south interior Karnataka, and Kerala.
MAY GET WEAKENED
The monsoon is expected to get weakened in intensity over northwest India during the week beginning today. It may instead get active over northeast India and to some extent over the peninsula.
A western disturbance that rolled in from across the northwest border lay anchored over northwest India and would escalate rain through interaction with the monsoon over northwest and adjoining central India.
The offshore trough persisted along the new alignment that moved the southern end away from Kerala coast and reached out to Lakshadweep.
RAIN OUTLOOK
Rainfall outlook for today and the following two days are as follows:
Aug 6, Wednesday : Heavy to very heavy with extremely heavy falls over Madhya Pradesh, Konkan-Goa, coastal Karnataka, south interior Karnataka, Kerala.
Heavy over south Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Assam, Meghalaya, Madhya Maharashtra.
Aug 7, Thursday : Heavy to very heavy with extremely heavy falls over west Madhya Pradesh, east Rajashtan, east Madhya Pradesh, Konkan-Goa, coastal Karnataka, south interior Karnataka, Kerala.
Heavy at isolated places over south Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Maharashta, Gujarat, Saurashtra, Assam and Meghalaya,
Aug 8, Friday : Heavy to very rainfall over east Rajasthan and Konkan-Goa. Heavy over Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, east Gujarat, coastal and south interior Karnataka, Himalayan foothills in West Bengal, Assam and Meghalaya.
August 9 to 13 : Rain or thundershowers along west coast and Northeastern States.
Isolated to scattered rainfall over interior peninsula and plains of northwest India.
Increase in rainfall activity along foothills of the Himalayas.