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The likely weak southwest monsoon could well be followed by an equally disappointing northeast monsoon (reverse monsoon) for India this year.
Initial forecasts by a leading European agency have warned that winter rains during October-November-December may fail to bring major gains.
DIFFICULT TIMES
This could signal difficult times for the southern peninsula, which may have been hoping to make good the rain deficit during the latter part of the year.
For northwest India, which is forecast to pile on the deficit during August-September, lack of winter rain would create moisture stress for the rabi crop.
The warning came on Sunday in the latest monthly seasonal updates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Earlier, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology had stated that it did not see any near-term scope for a major recovery of the northern hemisphere monsoon.
WARMER WINTER?
Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change has said that India could be heading for a warmer winter this year.
It agreed with the European agency that the winter rain could be largely below normal.
But unlike the European counterpart, it saw September-October-November rain being normal for the southern peninsula.
Meanwhile, the ongoing monsoon spell over central India and adjoining north peninsula held together on Sunday, though weakened a bit relative to the previous day.
Parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra made most of the gains on the second day of the revived monsoon activity.
ONGOING SPELL
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast heavy rainfall over east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Telangana on Monday. A heavy rainfall warning is also valid for madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, coastal Karnataka, Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh during the next two days.
The rains would keep moving west and lash west Madhya Pradesh, east Gujarat, Konkan and Goa until Tuesday, the IMD said.
Northwest India and interior southern peninsula would likely be left scanning the skies for the next rain wave, which may or may not oblige them just yet.
The sole exception is the west coast, including Konkan and Mumbai, which may continue to gain from occasional monsoon pulses during the short to medium term.
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