Rain deficit touches 14% despite rain in South

Rain deficit has reached 14 per cent (against 12 per cent forecast by India Met Department) despite the exiting monsoon stopped on its tracks over North-West India for the third day on Sunday.

For now, a western disturbance activity in the North-West and ongoing showers in the South have combined to put a spanner in the monsoon withdrawal works.

But rains are so sparse over North-West and Central India that deficits have rose to 14 per cent and 18 per cent respectively. East and North-East India too are witnessing a recess with deficit reverting to 3 per cent.

The shortfall in worst-hit South Peninsula has readjusted to 21 per cent after a round of showers. More easing is expected next week as a likely low-pressure area springs up over west-central Bay of Bengal.

Early projections show that the ‘low’ could meander southwest from the Odisha-North Coastal Andhra Pradesh coast towards South Coastal Andhra Pradesh-North Tamil Nadu by September 15.

It may crawl over the coast close to Chennai immediately thereafter, pushing rains along the entire East Coast and into the rest of the peninsula. It remains to be seen what impact these late but badly-needed showers would have on the overall deficit.

Naveen Mathur, Associate Director — Commodities & Currencies, Angel Commodities, notes that dry weather has prevailed in the cotton and groundnut regions of Gujarat and cotton as well as soyabean and pulses regions in Maharashtra over the past two weeks.

In Rajasthan, guar is experiencing moisture stress since the rains dried up there for 15-20 days now. In contrast, in Madhya Pradesh, the dries climes may help salvage the soyabean crop from recent floods.