Now that Fengal will likely fail to deliver any more than the parent deep depression already has or will over the next few days, it would be instructive to watch weather outlook for South Peninsula for rest of December.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) says the prevailing deep depression this (Friday) morning will weaken a round as a depression before crossing the Puducherry coast by tomorrow (Saturday) morning. It will weaken further on impacting land, and may send out a remnant low-pressure area across south Interior/coastal Karnataka and north Kerala into the Arabian Sea where it may gain some traction, though inconsequential. 

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECWMF) agrees with the IMD, and sees rainfall spreading out over many parts of the South Peninsula across Andhra Pradesh, parts of Telangana, Karnataka and Kerala over the next three to four days. This mostly coincides with the west-bound track of the remnant low-pressure area towards the Arabian Sea, per the ECMWF model.

Around this time, the IMD sees a fresh cyclonic circulation/low-pressure area likely developing over south-east Bay of Bengal where predecessor deep depression had originated. This circulation/’low’ is forecast to spend itself out largely over the waters, but may oversee a rain-driving easterly wave propel towards the Sri Lanka-south Tamil Nadu coast next week (first week of December). Rains may buffet Sri Lanka in the bargain, but some may spill to southern parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala as well, according to ECMWF.

This could likely be the last productive weather-making system travelling to the South Peninsula during the ongoing season, says an outlook from the US Climate Forecast System (CFS) model since winds may start to blow east-southeast (instead of east-northeast). In fact, by December 8, a weather system is forecast to dig deeper into the south of Sri Lanka per IMD, likely signalling approaching end to north-east monsoon.

Related Topics