Minimum (night) temperatures are expected to dip by 2-4 degrees Celsius over East India and rise by as much over most parts of North-West and Central India-East India during the next three days as a fresh weather-maker western disturbance plots its movement from West to East, carrying moisture and warmth upfront and dry air and cold in its rear.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) spotted what appears to be an approaching intense western disturbance lying spreadeagled across Afghanistan and Pakistan, which has spawned an induced cyclonic circulation further ahead to the East, across the international border, over North Rajasthan and neighbourhood.
Snow, dense fog in the hills
Associated moisture will get blown in from the North Arabian Sea, by the south-westerlies, into the hills and plains of North-West India, triggering snow and dense fog or rain or lightning and thundershowers.
It may be recalled that the immediate predecessor western disturbance had set off an avalanche in the East at a height of 14,500 ft over Arunachal Pradesh on Sunday, in which seven members of an Army patrol team lost their lives. Their mortal remains were recovered yesterday (Tuesday).
In its morning bulletin today (Wednesday), the IMD has forecast scattered to fairly widespread light or moderate rainfall or snowfall with thunderstorm and lightning over the hills across Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand until tomorrow (Thursday).
Rain watch for East India
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorm and lightning are likely over the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and North Rajasthan until tomorrow.
Progressively, the prevailing western disturbance on its eastward track will drop scattered to fairly widespread light or moderate rainfall over West Bengal, Sikkim and Jharkhand while it will be isolated over Bihar and Odisha both today and tomorrow (Wednesday and Thursday).
Dense fog for plains
Dense fog conditions may develop during the night or morning hours over isolated pockets of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, North Rajasthan, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura as winds fan moisture brought in by the disturbance over cool ground.
Passage of the disturbance will cause skies to clear up and cold air to well up in the rear and bring down night temperatures by 2-4 degrees Celsius over most parts of North-West and Central India until February 13. The same disturbance will cause the reverse in East India as minimum temperatures will rise by 2-3 degrees Celsius due to warmth and moisture.
Showers for Tamil Nadu, Kerala
Meanwhile, towards the South, an interesting scenario is developing with a cyclonic circulation persisting over Madhya Maharashtra and adjoining Marathawada and a trough in easterlies (from the Bay of Bengal) extending from North Kerala to this cyclonic circulation.
Isolated to scattered light rainfall likely over Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands from February 14 to 16. In the interregnum, thunderstorms accompanied with lightning may roll out at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal for the next few days.