With less than week to go before the monsoon crosses the halfway mark, the all-India rain deficit stays at 22 per cent (as on Tuesday).
This is despite the reasonably good run through central India over the past few days now pushing east.
HIGH NORMAL
The emerging deficit now runs against high monthly rainfall normal for July; only exceptionally strong and sustained rain can hope to make any impression.
Individual regional deficits are led by northwest India (42 per cent); central India and south peninsula (23 per cent each) and east and northeast (seven per cent).
Meanwhile, the Bay of Bengal is preparing to lob in another rain system over land, whose track would be closely watched for gains for mainly central India.
The Global Forecasting System (GFS) model sees the cyclonic circulation travelling west over land across Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra into northwest Madhya Pradesh during the short-term.
But US National Centres for Environmental Prediction says the rain is likely to be confined to central, east-central and adjoining east India.
BLANK IN NORTHWEST
There are no indications yet of any meaningful rains for either north-west India or south peninsular India.
In fact, the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services says that below normal rains are indicated for southern Indian peninsula and eastern Indian Ocean up during the next fortnight (until August 8).
The monsoon flows would be in all probability directed to South-East Asia, with more cyclonic activity indicated for South China Sea.
But the CPC said that an ongoing cyclonic circulation may bring heavy rainfall to Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, during this week.
EL NINO STATUS
Meanwhile, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has said that the El Nino is back on track in the east tropical Pacific. This should continue to raise concerns over the Indian monsoon.
An India Meteorological Department warning said heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh during the next two days.
Heavy rainfall has also been forecast over Uttarakhand and Orissa during this period.