With the formation of a trough off the coast of Kerala, conditions are ripe for the next big monsoon lunge towards the West Coast and adjoining Central India.
This offshore trough is an elongated area of lower pressure along the West Coast, the presence of which signifies concurrently ‘active’ monsoon conditions.
MOISTURE LOAD
The trough receives the monsoon winds and their heavy loads of moisture, which blast their way into the Western Ghats standing tall on the eastern border of Kerala, Karnataka, Konkan and Goa.
The moisture is made to rise against the Ghats and cool rapidly to set off heavy to very heavy rains all along the West Coast, extending right into Mumbai.
This is exactly what international models are predicting until June 15. On the other side, a couple of low-pressure areas from the Bay of Bengal will do their part, pushing rain into the farming heartland.
So much so, the monsoon would have covered practically the whole of the country, except West Rajasthan, Haryana and Delhi, by the middle of June.
‘RAIN SHADOW’
International agencies have pointed to probabilities of very heavy rain from June 9 all along the West Coast, Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Chhattisgarh and Odisha, and Uttarakhand until June 15.
Heavy rain has also been forecast for South Gujarat, Mumbai and parts of Western Maharashtra.
Areas expectedly being left out of monsoon footprint are most of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka (except coastal Karnataka); Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. These agencies suspect that North Arabian Sea would the development of a minimal storm, which would crawl towards Oman and the Gulf of Eden.
RAINY JUNE
But residual rain bands from this system, expectedly forming just South of Karachi, are projected to lash parts of Gujarat as well.
Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services maintained the view that monsoon would stay hyperactive in June, delivering above normal rain for the country as a whole.
A two-day outlook from India Met Department on Sunday said that conditions were favourable for advance of monsoon into more parts of Karnataka; entire Tamil Nadu; and parts of South Andhra Pradesh.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall could break out over Kerala while it would be isolated heavy over Lakshadweep.
No significant change in conditions is expected until Thursday, the Thiruvananthapuram Met Office said.