Low-pressure area over north-west and adjoining central Bay of Bengal became ‘well-marked’ on Saturday with India Meteorological Department (IMD) advancing its further strengthening as a depression by Sunday, earlier by a day than predicted. It will move across West Bengal coast, north Odisha, Jharkhand and adjoining north Chhattisgarh during subsequent three days. 

The core monsoon trough has entirely shifted to south of normal yet again, and will stay as such for next 3-4 days, the IMD said, leaving a lone cyclonic circulation to do the honours over central Rajasthan. The southerly movement of the trough may weaken monsoon circulation over extreme north-west India, and bring the rains back to an already soaked west and central India. 

Seven-day outlook

Outlook for next seven days said fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rain may return to West India while it will be scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate over Central India. Isolated very heavy rain is likely over the ghats of Madhya Maharashtra on Sunday and Monday; and Vidarbha on Thursday. It will be isolated heavy over Madhya Pradesh for next seven days; Chhattisgarh and Konkan & Goa until Thursday; Vidarbha until Friday; Madhya Maharashtra until Wednesday; and Marathwada on Thursday and Friday. 

AP, Telangana: widespread rain expected

Towards the south, fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rain is likely over Coastal Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe; Scattered to fairly widespread to moderate over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam; Telangana; and Lakshadweep; and isolated to scattered rainfall over Rayalaseema; Tamil Nadu; Puducherry & Karaikal; and Interior Karnataka during the week.

Isolated extremely heavy rain is likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on Sunday and very heavy over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Telangana on Sunday and Monday. Isolated heavy rain is likely over Kerala & Mahe until Monday; Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana, South Interior Karnataka until Tuesday; and over Coastal Karnataka, until Wednesday. 

Wet session in east India

Towards East and North-East, the first swathe of land to be impacted head on as the depression emerges from the Bay, the IMD has forecast isolated very heavy rain over Odisha from Sunday to Tuesday; over Assam & Meghalaya during from Tuesday to Thursday; over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated heavy rain is likely over Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura during next seven days; over Odisha until Wednesday; Arunachal Pradesh, from Tuesday to Friday; West Bengal & Sikkim from Monday to Friday; and Bihar and Jharkhand from Wednesday to Friday. 

Rajasthan gains most

The 24 hours ending Saturday morning saw heavy to very heavy rain over isolated places of East Rajasthan and Telangana while it was heavy over Uttarakhand, Haryana, West Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala. Rajasthan has recorded excess to large excess rain as this year’s season heads for a close even as rest of North-West India is in shortfall.

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This is because the monsoon trough has remained mostly to the south of its normal position without a full-fledged ‘break’ phase. This alignment favours west, central and peninsular India. During a ‘monsoon break’ phase, the trough moves to the north, and brings along with due share of heavy to very heavy rain to the Indo-Gangetic planes, hills, and rest ares of the region. 

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