Based on kharif sowing trends and reported crop conditions so far, the country seems headed for a record harvest of rice, cotton and soyabean. Prospects look good for sugarcane and jute, too. .
Production of coarse cereals, pulses and groundnut may fall, largely due to diversion of area: From bajra to soyabean and guar in Rajasthan, cotton and soyabean in place of jowar in Maharashtra, and groundnut going to cotton and castor in Gujarat.
The one big spoiler in these entire calculations, however, could be fertilisers. The availability of di-ammonium phosphate and muriate of potash has been a matter of concern and there are reports of shortages emanating from various parts of the country. How this would impact production will be known only at the time of harvest.
The South-West monsoon, at the right time, has helped in better coverage of rice, cotton and soyabean. The average rainfall for the country during June was 11.3 per cent above normal, while being deficient by 14.4 per cent in July. But August has seen a revival, with the country as a whole receiving 6.2 per cent more than normal rain during the first half.
More importantly, this broad all-India picture has been observed at the level of individual States and regions as well. The entire contiguous belt, from West Rajasthan and Gujarat downwards to Maharashtra, North Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, got very little rain in June, notwithstanding the overall nationwide surplus. But in July, the monsoon staged a turnaround in most of these areas, enabling farmers take up sowing, especially of cotton and oilseeds.
It was the other way round in North-West India and also West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand and East Uttar Pradesh (UP), where the copious rainfall in June was followed by a dry spell throughout July. These regions, again, have witnessed a monsoon revival this month — just when things were appearing to go wrong.