The revival of monsoon over the past week would help restrict any further damage to standing sugarcane crop in Maharashtra and Karnataka.
The rain deficit in the early monsoon period had impacted the sugarcane crop in these two States, forcing the industry and the State authorities to trim sugar output forecast for 2012-13 season.
Maharashtra had, in fact, reduced its sugar production forecast by 31 per cent to 6.2 million tonnes (mt) from 9 mt last year.
Fodder diversion
The dry spells had also forced farmers to divert cane to fodder in several parts of these States, where cane area has shrunk by over one lakh hectares.
“The crop condition could have further deteriorated impacting the yields, had the dry spell continued. However, with the pick-up in rains, we believe there will be no further damage as water availability has improved,” said Abinash Verma, Director-General, Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).
Acreage up
The crop is currently in the stage of sucrose formation and the recent rains could help stop cane diversion to fodder, Verma said.
The overall area under cane for the 2012-13 season has registered a 4.4 per cent increase, with farmers in Uttar Pradesh planting 2.20 lakh ha more than last year.
However, Maharashtra and Karnataka have registered a drop in acreage.
Lower output
Despite a higher acreage, sugar output for the 2012-13 season is likely to be lower on account of the dry spell affecting yields.
Concerns over lower output have already sparked a rally in the prices and ex-factory prices are ruling around Rs 34-35 a kg against Rs 28-29 a kg in the previous year.
The prices are expected to remain firm going forward. The Food Ministry expects the 2012-13 output to be 23 mt, down from 26 mt this year.
exports
ISMA, which has forecast a lower output of 25 mt for the 2012-13 season, is expected to review its estimates on September 10.
The country has shipped 3.3 mt so far to countries in West Asia, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. The opening balance at the beginning of new season starting October is pegged at six million tonnes.