A partially revived monsoon is expected to last only ‘for as long as’ a crucial cyclonic circulation in west-central Bay of Bengal manages to.
The caveat is in order since the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts sees this circulation off Andhra Pradesh dissipating over the next two days.
BRIEF LULL
This is now feared to bring another brief lull in monsoon activity; a fresh ‘pulse’ would materialise early next week.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast heavy rainfall at one or two places over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Konkan and Goa during the next two days.
Rain or thundershowers would break out at a few places over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on Wednesday and increase thereafter.
An exactly similar outlook is valid for one or two places over interior Maharashtra, Orissa and Chhattisgarh as well.
HEAVIER ALONG COAST
The US National Centres for Environment Protection is of the view that interior peninsula may not make big gains from this pulse.
The heavier rains are likely to be concentrated along the west coast, the northeast and parts of east India.
Meanwhile, the northern limit of monsoon continued to be pinned down across the peninsula for more than a week now.
The IMD said conditions were now favourable its advance into entire central Arabian Sea and Konkan, parts of Madhya Maharashtra, interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh during next three days.
STILL STUCK
The IMD cloud imagery showed convective clouds rising over parts north Andaman Sea, central and south Bay of Bengal and east-central and southeast Arabian Sea.
The offshore trough has sprung back to life but lay truncated from the Konkan to south Karnataka coast.
A helpful cyclonic circulation hovered over east-central Arabian Sea off the Konkan coast.
It is in fact this combination that is holding up the partially revived monsoon flows over the Karnataka and Konkan coasts.