Safer to predict an ‘unpredictable’ monsoon, says The Economist

“It is safe to predict more unpredictability,” says a special report in The Economist on the Indian monsoon that continues to defy the best forecasts made by the best of models.

The magazine recently published an account of ‘what might happen if India’s monsoon fails in future’ as part of a special ‘The World If’ series.

This year’s monsoon is already pointing to what is at stake, which in line with what The Economist may be trying to articulate.

The rain deficit mounted to 10 per cent by middle of August, normally the second rainiest month. July, the rainiest of the four monsoon months, recorded a deficit of 16 per cent, after June flattered to deceive with a surplus despite having to deal with a disruptive cyclone.

As for the last month of September, there is normally not much that is expected since the monsoon would start withdrawing from the north-west first. So, are we looking at a failed monsoon already, a rare occasion in history when such an event has occurred in consecutive years? The Economist report puts this ‘billion-dollar’ question in perspective. Nothing in India is as terrifying as the thought of a failed monsoon. Without water at the right time, hundreds of millions of people would see their incomes dry up. Food will become expensive. And as India is an emerging global giant in food production, exporting more rice than anyone, droughts could push up global prices.

At no time in the recent past has this pattern emerged so strongly mid-course as in this monsoon — while it has rained heavily and disruptively in parts of the east, central, west, and the north, drought-like conditions have persisted in almost the entire southern half of the country.

The Economist quotes a Japanese study that warns of a possible rapid decline in long-term rainfall for the south. Adam Roberts, South Asia Bureau Chief of The Economist , told BusinessLine that India will be well-advised to create more stable environmental conditions. Particulate matter in the air could impact rainfall patterns, so cleaning up air pollution could have an effect on the monsoon as well.

The air has become heavily polluted in recent decades in the same period that temperatures have started creeping up. In wet areas, particulate matter might mean more rain falling, whereas in dry areas it might mean less rain.

If air pollution is pushing trends in one direction, but climate change in another, it is all the more difficult to be sure of what is going on.