September rainfall crucial for pulses’ yield

The production of pulses, arguably the most important source of protein for a large number of the domestic population, could be impacted if the monsoon flatters to deceive for the third consecutive month.

Area covered by major kharif pulses such as arhar (tur), urad and moong, is higher by 12 per cent over the year as of August 28. But a rainfall deficit in September after a 23 per cent shortfall in August can hurt output and impact retail prices that have already shot over ₹100/kg in New Delhi.

“Deficit rainfall will have an impact on yield, but it is too early to tell by how much. Even if there’s scanty rainfall in September and water levels in the fields are at about 4-5 inches, pulses that are now entering the flowering stage can recover,” said KV Prabhu, Principal Scientist at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI).

Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra account for a bulk of the increase in pulses coverage, sufficiently making up for a drop in Karnataka and to a lesser extent in Odisha.

Rajasthan, in particular, has recorded an increase in area by nearly 25 per cent, from 20.54 lakh hectares (lh) last year to 25.64 lh as of last week, mainly due to receiving normal to excessive precipitation through the monsoon.

The crops in Maharashtra, where acreage is up 16 per cent to 17.24 lh, are a worry with vast tracts across the State’s interior and the Marathwada region receiving 40 to 50 per cent less rain between June 1 and August 31.

“Besides good water availability, high prices have encouraged more sowing in Rajasthan. In Maharashtra, there can be positives since heavy rain is actually a deterrent for moong – particularly across black soil region where there is heavy water retention. Scanty rain in these areas is sufficient,” said Prabhu.

Sowing of urad and moong are up 13.3 per cent and nearly 20 per cent and it is expected that prices for these varieties will reduce once the crop hits the market.

While sowing of arhar is up 2.7 per cent, retail prices could be under stress with depleted local stocks, uncertainty about production in Karnataka and Maharashtra, and imports from Myanmar slowing due to crop. arhar prices touched ₹132/kg on Tuesday – up 63 per cent from last year.

“There is not much concern for urad and moong since output is expected to be good in MP, UP and Rajasthan. Prices should come down and some decline has already been recorded,” said Bimal Kothari, Managing Director, Pancham International, a pulses importer.

“Local arhar is, however, exhausted and we are dependent on African countries for the next three months. About 250,000-300,000 tonnes of arhar will be imported into India till December,” he added. Imports are expected to rise with private contracts having been signed for at least 1 million tonnes (mt) of chana and yellow peas, besides arhar.

With Australia expected to produce 800,000 tonnes of chana this year, Kothari said that 400,000 tonnes had already been contracted while imports of 800,000 tonnes of yellow peas will begin by September and continue till January.

The Centre earlier said that States will be provided a subsidy of ₹10/kg on imported arhar which is being bought at ₹77 by it. Around ₹81 crore is being spent on imports from the ₹500-crore Price Stabilisation Fund and 5,000 tonnes of arhar is expected to arrive by mid-September.

Rainfall, however, was the need of the hour not just for the kharif crop but also for the rabi season which accounts for a larger share of India’s pulses output.

“We’ve had the driest August in a decade and soil moisture levels are low. If October rains fail, the rabi crop will also be stressed,” Pravin Dongre, Chairman, Indian Pulses and Grains Association, who expected prices to remain higher till December since imports were not likely to significantly impact the domestic market.

India produced 17.38 million tonnes (mt) of pulses in 2014-15 (July to June), down almost 10 per cent from the 19.25 mt produced in 2013-14, due to unseasonal rain and deficient rainfall.