Indian monsoon likely to be ‘normal’, predicts Skymet

The south-west monsoon, which is crucial for agricultural production and rural economy, is expected to be “normal” this year, says private weather forecaster Skymet.

In its “Preliminary Monsoon Forecast Guidance for 2022” on Monday, Skymet said the negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are weakening. This warming inclination of the Pacific Ocean, albeit within neutral limits, may not lead to an above-normal or excess rainfall. Still, chances of a ‘corrupt’ monsoon are also ruled out.

“This could be one of the ‘normal’ monsoon years making a robust start and finishing around the midway mark of the normal range, the range of normal rainfall is 96-104 per cent of long-period average (880.6mm),” Skymet said in a statement.

Projecting since 2012

Skymet has been projecting the south-west monsoon since 2012, though it abstained from making any projection in 2020 for “strategic reasons”. Last year, it had predicted a normal monsoon and was right in its projections. The private forecaster intends to release a detailed report on the prospects of the monsoon in April.

If the forecast proves correct, it will be the fourth consecutive year that India will have a normal monsoon.

The South West monsoon makes up nearly 70 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall, which is crucial for key kharif crops such as rice, cotton, oilseeds, pulses and sugarcane.

Robin Shaw, sugar analyst at UK-based Marex Spectron, which provides commodities brokerage services, said a neutral El Nino outlook removes at least one element of danger to the Indian monsoon.

Skymet said it is gathering data sets pertinent for a comprehensive monsoon forecast. “Ascertaining the authenticity is absolutely essential and that is a long-drawn procedure. Therefore, it is a bit premature to share the collated figures but suffice to present preliminary guidance,” Skymet said.

La Nina events

Further, Skymet said monsoon has large inter-annual fluctuations in its arrival, intensity, duration, and withdrawal. It is relatively early to decode all these aspects at this stage. But there are precursors to get an early glimpse and gauge its health during the four-month-long season.

The last two monsoon seasons have been driven by back-to-back La Nina events, shrinking now. It also means that the monsoon this year will be a devolving La Nina to start with and turn neutral later.

AVM GP Sharma, President – Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather, said: “After observing back-to-back La Nina during 2020 and 2021, the chances of yet another episode is ruled out, statistically. The sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are likely to rise soon and the probability of continued La Nina will fall.”

Good for agri output

The projection of a normal monsoon also augurs good for agricultural production, which has witnessed new highs since 2016-17. During the current crop year (July 2021-June 2022), the Ministry of Agriculture, in its second advanced estimates, projected total foodgrains production at 316.06 million tonnes (mt) against 310.74 mt last year.

Foodgrains production is projected higher on record wheat, rice, and pulses output. According to the estimates, rice production has been projected at 127.93 mt (124.37 mt last year), wheat output at 111.32 mt (109.59) and pulses at 26.96 mt (25.46 mt).

Over the last two years, the country experienced heavy rains during September and November. Last year, unseasonal rains lashed many parts of the country during December and early January. Heavy rains have proved beneficial for rabi crops production. Over the last six years, rabi production has exceeded kharif output, which had at one point of time contributed 60 per cent of the total foodgrains production.

Good agricultural production helps lift the rural economy with good sales of white goods, fast-moving consumer goods, two-wheelers, cars and gold. This, in turn, helps the country’s overall economy to perform well.

With regard to the weather prediction this year, Skymet said ENSO predictability decreases during the upcoming “spring barrier” and at times leads to an unstable ENSO regime. This will get factored in its April forecast. While the monsoon trough is over the South Tropical Indian Ocean, IOD events are typically unable to form till April. Reliable trends of “Indian Ocean Dipole” emerge in the latter half of it. Early indications suggest it to be “neutral” but leaning close to the negative threshold. IOD-ENSO interaction will hold the key to the overall health of Indian summer monsoon 2022, said Sharma.