Private forecaster Skymet Weather has predicted an above normal monsoon this year — the second such forecast by a private agency this month. “Monsoon 2016 is likely to be above normal at 105 per cent (+/–4 per cent) of the long period average (LPA) from June to September with a 35 per cent probability of above average rainfall,” it said.
A normal monsoon, after two years of drought, will bring much-needed relief to farmers, who have been suffering from low crop production and income losses.
On April 1, private climate management company Weather Risk Management Services had predicted that monsoon 2016 would be about 5 per cent to 10 per cent above normal.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which generates its own statistics to predict the monsoon, unlike the private companies, which use the dynamic climate model of international agencies, is expected to come up with its forecast later in the month.
Earlier this year, IMD experts had predicted chances of a normal monsoon in 2016 because of a weakening El Nino (which hamper rains in Asia) and chances of development of La Nina conditions that favour the monsoon.
According to Skymet, India’s West Coast and Central parts will receive good rainfall.
Long-range forecastsThe rainfall projections made this month are long-range weather forecasts (more than seven days into the future) and may not be as reliable or as detailed as medium-range or short-range forecasts (which are much closer to the start of the monsoons and during the monsoon).
But, a long-range forecast helps in setting the mood for farmers and industry, enabling industry to take inventory decisions and the government to do contingency planning, if required.