This year’s South-West Monsoon (June-September) is likely to be ‘below normal’, at around 93 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), private forecaster Skymet Weather said on Wednesday.

This is the first early forecast for the 2019 season. The India Met Department (IMD) is expected to come out with its own forecast by mid-April.

A preliminary monsoon forecast guidance by Skymet on February 25 had predicted normal rains. It kept the probability of normal monsoon at about 50 per cent, but also alluded to a ‘significant chance’ of rainfall ending below normal. This was based on January projections, which indicated that chances of El Nino were fading rapidly.

But the scenario changed completely in February, with moderate El Nino conditions emerging over the Pacific Ocean.

An El Nino could be declared any time now, Skymet said.

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Skymet Managing Director Jatin Singh said: “The Pacific is now strongly warmer than average. Model projections indicate 80 per cent chance of El Nino conditions during March-May, dropping to 60 per cent for June-August.”

This means “it is going to be a devolving El Nino year, though retaining threshold values all through the season,” said Singh. “Thus, monsoon 2019 is likely to be below normal.”

Skymet has factored in an error margin of +/-5 per cent while computing the rainfall at 93 per cent of the LPA of 89 cm during June-September. It sees nil chances of excess rainfall (more than 110 per cent of the LPA).

The onset month of June may prove to be sluggish and the resultant rain deficit may spill into July. The second half of the season would, however, see better rainfall.

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