The carryforward stocks of soyabean at the beginning of the oil year 2022-23 starting October are estimated at 25.09 lakh tonnes (lt), some 12 times more than 1.83 lakh tonnes during the same time in the previous years The higher carryforward stocks are likely to weigh on the oilseed’s prices, which have softened trend with the new crop arriving in the markets across key producing States such as Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.
The modal price (the rate at which most trades take place) of soyabean are hovering between ₹4,000 and ₹4,600 across various mandis in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.
Lower crushing
The higher carry-forward stocks are a result of farmers and traders holding back the stocks anticipating higher prices. This led to decline in availability leading to lower crushing during the oil year 2021-22 (October-September).
As per Soyabean Oil Processors Association (SOPA)‘s latest estimated supply and demand, soyabean crushing during the 2021-22 oil year was 84 lt, down 12.5 per cent from 96 lt the previous season. Total market arrivals, SOPA said stood at 93 lakh tonnes down from 95 lakh tonnes. a year ago. SOPA had projected a crop of 118.89 lt during 2021-22.
Production of soyabean meal was also lower during the oil year at 67.05 lt (76.62 lt the previous year. The imports of the meal was higher at 7 lt (2.36 lt), while exports were significantly lower at 6.50 lt (19.20 lt)
Higher yields
In the current kharif season, SOPA has estimated the crop size to be higher at 120.39 lt (118.89 lt in the previous year). While SOPA’s crop estimates are lower than the Ministry of Agriculture’s first advance estimates of 128.92 lt, the increase in output from last year’s levels is on account of higher yields despite dip in acreage.
The soyabean trade body sees higher yields this year on account of better spread of rains in the key growing States such as Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. SOPA sees overall yields higher by about 6 per cent at 1,051 kg per hectare compared with 991 kg per hectare in the previous year.